Nuclear War: Too much information

Book review of “Nuclear War. A Scenario” by Annie Jacobsen

I had heard some criticism of Annie Jacobsen’s book “Nuclear War” before I even bought it. But also, lots of people were raving about it, so I decided to read it myself. This review contains a few spoilers, but I don’t think the plot is the main motivation for reading this book, although it does read like a dystopian novel.

If you want to know what a full-scale nuclear war might look like and how it could plausibly begin (and end), then this book is very valuable. Just looking at the copious notes and bibliography (almost 60 pages) shows that an inordinate amount of time went into the research. It covers nuclear strategy and targeting plans, the effects of one and of multiple explosions, (lack of) continuance of government, the uselessness of missile defence, the problem of misunderstanding and miscalculation, and many other aspects of the problem.

But the main point is that it demonstrates that nuclear deterrence, if it fails, will lead to the end of civilisation as we know it. This is a point that needs to be understood if we are to convince politicians to get rid of nuclear weapons. For this reason, I initially welcomed the book as a campaigning tool.
However, not everyone is convinced that this scenario is plausible. A “bolt from the blue ” attack may be “what everyone in D.C. fears most”, but it is definitely not the most likely scenario. The 2018 book by Arms Control Wonk Jeffrey Lewis “The 2020 Commission Report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks against the United States” goes into great depth into how a nuclear attack by the DPRK against the US could plausibly come about. But Annie Jacobsen leaves this out of her book. There is no explanation as to what led up to such an attack. If we want to convince others that deterrence will fail, it must be plausible.

My main criticism of the book is that there is too much information and too little focus. It is enough to mentally deal with that a single nuclear warhead sparks off a total nuclear war leading to nuclear winter. That is already imagining the unimaginable. But Jacobsen throws in one disaster on top of another, possibly trying to use all the “what if” research she collated. She could have conceivably written a trilogy with the titles “Nuclear War”, “The Devil’s Scenario” and “Nuclear Blackout” and made a ton more money.

Also slightly offputting was the list of 47 interviewees at the beginning of the book of whom only one was a woman. More problematic were the mistakes that only the nuclear experts saw but commented on in social media. BTW: you do not get blinded by looking at a nuclear blast, but at the flash before the blast.
Nevertheless, I recommend reading this book. But don’t read it before you go to bed. Or you will have trouble sleeping.

Nuclear War. A Scenario, Annie Jacobsen, Penguin Random House, 2024